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The Top Four 2006: An Analysis |
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Written by FootyGeek
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Sep 19, 2006 at 11:53 AM |
It would have been a great prediction for any betting man, because for the first time ever the final four teams in the finals are made up entirely of interstate teams. So who will prevail? FootyGeek sticks his neck out and makes the big prediction for the 2006 premiership.
At this stage of the year the pressure is at its greatest. It would make sense that those teams in the top four who have performed best under pressure throughout the year would have the best chance. To analyse this idea the top four's performance against the top four during the season is in order.
How did each team perform against teams in the top four during the season? They may not necessarily be teams that are top four now but were in the top four at the time these teams played them. This means that in that week the pressure was on to play against and beat an in form team.
The data breaks down like this:
Adelaide
Only played 3 teams in the top four all season.
Round 5 against the Western Bulldogs at home for a 77 point win.
Round 17 against West Coast away from home for an 82 point loss.
Round 22 against Melbourne at home for a 52 point win.
West Coast
Six games against top four teams for a record of 4 wins and 2 losses.
Round 2 against Adelaide for an away win by 2 points.
Round 7 against Collingwood for a home win by 14 points.
Round 13 against Western Bulldogs for a home loss of 9 points.
Round 17 against Adelaide for a home win by 82 points.
Round 18 against St Kilda for an away win by 39 points.
Round 21 against Fremantle for a home loss by 57 points.
Sydney
Five games against top four teams for a record of just 2 wins and three losses. Both games in this list against current top four sides were losses.
Round 8 against Western Bulldogs for a home win by 26 points.
Round 12 against Collingwood for a home loss by 13 points.
Round 14 against Adelaide for a home loss by 39 points.
Round 15 against West Coast for an away loss by 2 points.
Round 19 against Melbourne for an away win by 32 points.
Fremantle
Does not get much more impressive than six wins out of six against top four sides during the season. Even more impressive when you consider that three of those wins were against the top team and that the bulk of these 'pressure' wins occured towards the end of the season.
Round 6 against West Coast for a home win by 5 points.
Round 15 against Collingwood for an away win by 15 points.
Round 16 against Melbourne for a home win by 29 points.
Round 19 against Adelaide for an away win by 15 points.
Round 20 against St Kilda for a home win by 56 points.
Round 21 against West Coast for a home win by 57 points.
If you look at the 'Luck Ladder' for 2006 (the luck ladder is compiled from points allocated according to where the opponent is on the ladder when they are played against, i.e. if Melbourne plays Fremantle who are 11th on the ladder Melbourne gets 11 points), the various fortunes of the top four clubs can be seen. Both Sydney and Adelaide has easier draws during the year which may indicate that their end of year ladder positions may be slightly inflated. On the other hand West Coast and Fremantle in particular had a more difficult path through the year indicating their ladder positions were well earnt.
So in conclusion it would appear that West Coast and Fremantle have much greater form against top four teams and have also had a more difficult time overall thoughout the season. Adelaide and Sydney on the other hand have had a far easier draw but at the same time have not performed as well against the top sides.
Despite both Frementle and West Coast being the away teams this week, based on their form under pressure this year I am tipping them both to win and for the Grand Final to be an all WA affair.
Fremantle's form has been brilliant, particularly against top teams both home and away. Even though they are inexperience in finals and the outside chance according to the bookmaker I am tippng them to win the flag.
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Last Updated ( Feb 03, 2010 at 10:33 AM )
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