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Written by FootyGeek
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Nov 21, 2006 at 08:49 PM |
Richmond have been the subject of much sniggering in recent times for their propensity to finish ninth on the ladder. In fact by finishing ninth again in 2006 the Tigers have just missed the finals five times in the thirteen years since the final eight was introduced. But how does the "Tigers Ninth" myth stack up over the fullness of time?
In order to find out which teams have finished ninth the most we must travel back to 1908. This was the year that the VFL expanded from an eight team competition to a ten team competition with the inclusion of Richmond (lets just say they were the ninth team to enter the league) and University. Therefore, from 1908 onwards there has been a ninth position on the ladder, all except for 1916-1918 due to World War I.
In the 99 seasons from 1908-2006 the team that has finished ninth the most is St Kilda who have done it 12 times. However, over the years, War and the introduction of teams in the 1920's, 1980's and 1990's has meant that not all teams have competed in all years since 1908. To get a better picture the number of years in the competition and the number of times finishing ninth are used to work out how often each team has finished ninth when in the competition. When this is done it turns out that Adelaide finishes ninth most often, every eight years in fact. However, Adelaide only have to avoid ninth position next year and St Kilda will be once again the owner of the title of "King of Ninth".
The source of mirth for non-Richmond supporters has not necessarily been finishing in ninth position but that ninth position has recently been one spot out of the finals. So really in order to bust the myth an examination is needed of the team that has managed to just miss the finals the most times. When this is done for the period 1908-2006 it is revealed that Geelong has just missed the finals the most, a total of fourteen times. They are closely followed by Fitzroy/Brisbane Lions and Richmond. Even taking into account the number of years in the competition the Cats still come out on top finishing just outside of the finals roughly once every seven years.
But a team can only just miss the finals if they miss the finals in the first place. Therefore, those teams that finish in the finals more often than others have less chance of just missing the finals. In order to take this into account the number of years each team has missed the finals was calculated. Then this figure was combined with the total number of times each team has missed the finals by one ladder position. In the end it revealed that Carlton miss the finals by one spot 28% of the time when they miss the finals, more than any other team. This is a blessing in disguise for the Blues, because it shows that even when they are bad, they are still good enough to to finish higher on the ladder more often than any other team.
So has the Myth really been busted? While it appears St Kilda loves ninth, the Cats just miss the finals more often and the Blues have a greater propensity to do it the Myth has not really been busted. The stigma attached to Richmond's recent record of just missing out on finals is still fresh in supporters memories and can only be erased with the passage of time. |
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Last Updated ( Nov 21, 2006 at 10:16 PM )
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