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Written by FootyGeek
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Sep 05, 2007 at 12:49 PM |
Just having a look at the percentages in the top 8 and it is really quite amazing, and this has definitely caused some confusion in the afl betting scene. Geelong have the highest percentage on 153% while there is a huge gap to the second best percentage which is Sydney on 120%. A gap this large has not occurred since 1950 when Essendon had a percentage of 162% to the second best percentage of Geelong on 124%. Essendon won the premiership that year.
Since 1950 eight finalists have finished with a percentage above 150%. Of those six have won the premiership and two (Collingwood in 1966 and West Coast in 1991) were runners up. Also for the 1966 and 1991 flags the winners both had very good percentages as well (both over 135%).
Since 1950, 140 finalists have finished with a percentage below 120%. Of those 140, just nine have won the premiership (none with a percentage below 110%). Six of those nine premierships were in the 1970s.
The finalist with the highest percentage has won the premiership 24 times out of the 57 years since 1950. The most interesting recent example are Adelaide in 1997 and 1998. Even though they won the premierships from 4th and 5th positions in both years they finished the season with the best percentage.
The side on top of the ladder has finished with the highest percentage 34 times since 1950, of those 18 have won the premiership.
If you were just using the percentages data from 1950 to frame a betting market you would say that Geelong has close to a 100% chance of winning the premiership.
PA, WC, HW, SY, AD have a 9 out of 71 chance, about a 13% chance of winning the premiership.
KA, CO have zero chance of winning the premiership.
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Last Updated ( Feb 03, 2010 at 10:29 AM )
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